Niall Ferguson, a well-known historian and Harvard University professor, coined the term “Chimerica” in 2006. It was a clever way to underscore the fact that the Chinese and American economies had become so intertwined that they could be viewed as one economy.… Read More
Last week’s busy slate of data helped give investors a better idea of how the economy is faring amid policy uncertainty. The 1Q25 GDP report revealed the U.S. may be closer to recession than expected, with a tariff-driven spike in imports dragging real growth down 0.3% annualized.… Read More
Tariffs and trade wars and bears, oh my!
Recent weeks have clearly reminded us that we always face the risk of (sometimes severe) market turbulence. When challenging conditions actually materialize, we continue to preach patience and diversification.
Patience is a virtue…
When periods of heightened volatility unfold, all investors experience negative—sometimes viscerally negative—emotions, and those emotions tend to push us into a fight-or-flight mindset.… Read More
As the world braces for the tariff impacts on the global economy, the IMF’s latest forecasts, notably weaker than the last revision in October 2024, highlight which countries are likely to bear the brunt of the trade war. Unsurprisingly, the U.S.… Read More
Markets are forward looking, but earnings estimates don’t have to be. Currently, consensus is projecting 1Q25 and FY25 year-over-year EPS growth of 7.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Relative to 10-year medians of 4.4% and 3.1%, both estimates are strong.
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Unpacking New Tariffs and the Effect on Markets
Stocks can climb a wall of worry, but will never climb a wall of uncertainty
In the complex dance of global trade, few policy tools generate as much debate as tariffs. Simply defined, a tariff is a tax imposed by one country on goods imported from another.… Read More
Last week’s erratic market moves were disorienting. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out its worst four-day stretch since the pandemic, falling over 12% after the administration announced tariffs that exceeded market expectations. Shortly after, news that these tariffs would be suspended for most countries fueled a 9.5% market rally, the largest one day gain since 2008.… Read More
While new tariffs sparked a market sell off, the March Jobs report provided some good news in an otherwise volatile week. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228k, well above expectations of 135k. However, revisions put this report more in line with expectations, removing 48k jobs from gains from the prior two months.… Read More
Known for its notoriously strict borrowing laws, Germany’s new fiscal spending package has the potential to transform both the country and the broader European Union in the coming decade. The package was proposed as a response to the uncertain future of the long-standing implicit security blanket from the U.S.,… Read More
Entering 2025, investors once again sang the chorus of U.S. exceptionalism. Driven by optimism around AI innovation from mega-cap tech and hopes of pro-business policies, they wondered—why look anywhere else? Yet two risks quietly played in the background: extreme market concentration and stretched valuations.… Read More