After the election, many anticipated that the dollar would continue its upward trajectory, even after hitting its highest level in real effective terms since the 1980s. This was fueled by the belief that the new administration’s policies would stimulate real economic growth and reduce the probability of significant Fed rate cuts in 2025.… Read More
Unrealized policies can have real impacts. Companies pulling forward imports ahead of tariffs propelled the U.S. trade deficit to a record high of $131 billion in January. While exports have remained relatively stable (+1% m/m), importssurged 10%, driven by industrial supplies & materials (+34%).… Read More
The White House’s newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has two primary objectives: cutcosts and improve government efficiency. Initial efforts have focused on federal workforce reductions, starting with abuyout offer accepted by ~75k employees. Shortly thereafter, thousands of federal workers, largely those classifiedas probationary, received layoff notices.… Read More
Gold has been on a tear, climbing 12% year-to-date, nearing $3,000 per troy ounce. This follows an impressive 25.3% surge last year, edging past the S&P 500’s total return. With prices at record highs, investors are questioning what’s behind the rally and what role gold can play in their portfolios.… Read More
Since the pandemic began, the commercial real estate office sector has been one of the most heavily impacted industries as companies adopted work-from-home policies, reducing the need for physical office space in large cities. While much has been written about the demise of the post pandemic office sector, with double-digit vacancy rates and negative net operating income growth over the last three years, is it possible that the sector has reached a turning point in its recovery?… Read More
The current administration is focused on reducing the federal workforce as part of its fiscal strategy, proposing measures like severance packages, hiring freezes, and potential agency eliminations. However, data from the BLS suggests that there may be limited scope for significant cuts.… Read More
With 32% in the Magnificent 7 and another 19% in the rest of the technology sector, the S&P 500 is becoming a concentrated bet. Monday was a painful wakeup call when the release of DeepSeek’s new LLM sent semiconductors and tech tumbling 7.8% and 5.6%, respectively.… Read More
Immediately following his inauguration, President Trump signed a slew of executive orders (“EO”) and made several declarations related to major policy themes from his campaign, including boosting U.S. energy production. These EOs were aimed at deregulating oil drilling (“Drill baby, Drill”) and increasing energy supply.… Read More
With different data sources telling different stories, last year was confusing for labor market observers. The closelywatched Jobs report, for example, leverages two surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. Whileboth surveys showed impressive job growth in December 2024, the longer-term trends diverge.… Read More
It was another great year for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 rose 23% and hit 57 new all-time highs along the way, the most since 1928. Once again, we have AI to thank for this spectacular performance. The Magnificent 7 rallied 48%, and for the second year in a row, technology, communication services and consumer discretionary were the top performing sectors, while semiconductors & semiconductor equipment was the top performing industry.… Read More
After the election, many anticipated that the dollar would continue its upward trajectory, even after hitting its highest level in real effective terms since the 1980s. This was fueled by the belief that the new administration’s policies would stimulate real economic growth and reduce the probability of significant Fed rate cuts in 2025.… Read More