Consumers may have felt more generous this holiday season but they haven’t felt more joyful. Two key measures of consumer attitudes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sentiment) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Confidence), remained bleak in December as assessments of current business and labor market conditions continued to deteriorate.… Read More
Investors have had to contend with plenty of noise in 2025. Tariff uncertainty disrupted markets, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed economic data and the Fed resumed its easing cycle after an extended pause. Nevertheless, economic growth held up and equity markets are hovering near all-time highs.… Read More
Despite being a small part of the economy, the AI data center build-out has quietly become a key driver of growth this year. While many households have not felt this boom directly, they are likely to feel its knock-on effects, particularly in their utility bills.… Read More
The holiday season is off to a very merry start. The five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday raked in a record $44.2bn, up 8% y/y and above expectations. Consumers are on track to spend $250bn for the first time ever this holiday season, yet they couldn’t feel worse.… Read More
Last week marked the first full week since the government reopened, allowing for the release of old and new economic data. The latest figures underscored an important trend: Slack in the labor market is on the rise.
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The longest U.S. government shutdown on record, lasting just over six weeks, ended late last Wednesday. As the dust settles and federal spending resumes, investors are starting to tally the damage.
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The federal government shutdown has now become the longest in history, resulting in a second consecutive missed jobs report from the BLS. In its absence, we can lean on alternative data sources to gauge the health of the labor market. This month, these sources have provided mixed signals.… Read More
With 2026 quickly approaching, many Americans are looking forward to unusually large income tax refunds. Next year, we expect a double-digit percentage increase in average personal income tax refunds due to the backdating of tax cuts from the OBBBA to the start of 2025.… Read More
The 3Q25 earnings season is off to a strong start. With 25% of market cap reporting, consensus is projecting year-over year (y/y) EPS growth of 8.5%, slightly above the long-term median of 8.0%. Looking at the three main sources of EPS growth, sales, margins and shares are expected to contribute 5.9, 3.6, and 1.0%-pts, respectively.… Read More
Last Friday marked the 17th day of the government shutdown, leaving investors without government economic data for yet another week. Last week, investors missed out on a key reading of consumer health due to the delay of theSeptember retail sales report.… Read More