New year, new equity market. Value is off to its strongest ever start against growth, and only one Mag 7 is positive, but it’s reasonable to question both the durability and rationality of parts of this rotation. First and foremost, it’s been led by cyclicals like small caps and the energy, industrials and materials sectors.… Read More
After three consecutive years of double-digit gains, including an eye-popping 65% in 2025, investor appetite for gold has never been higher. In recent years, demand for gold has accelerated amid concerns about long-term U.S. fiscal health, geopolitical tensions, inflation and U.S.… Read More
Another government shutdown; another batch of delayed economic data. The most anticipated report last week was the January jobs report, now due out this Wednesday. Our models suggest the economy added 52k jobs in January, although annual revisions may have cut ~1mn jobs from March 2025 payrolls.… Read More
What happens when, after years of near-zero inflation, it finally takes hold, and a heavily indebted government leans on subsidies and tax cuts to shield households? Japan gave markets a live demo this month.
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After three blockbuster years for the S&P 500, investors are questioning whether there’s anymore room to run. The good news is that earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is increasingly fueling the bull market. The share of S&P 500 returns driven by earnings growth rose from just 27% in 2023 to 84% in 2025.… Read More
In a bid to lower mortgage rates, President Trump recently directed two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to purchase $200bn worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). While the details of these purchases remain in flux, the announcement helped 30-yearmortgage rates slide to a 3-year low.… Read More
Heading into 2026, absent any major market shocks, the pieces are in place for one of the strongest years for North American M&A and IPO activity we have ever seen. Favorable economic conditions, an increasingly permissive antitrust agenda in Washington and cheaper financing costs should make it easier to facilitate transactions, with companies now operating in one of the most pro-business deal-making environments in years.… Read More
Markets had a year of low lows and high highs, as two competing dynamics drove asset returns: tariffs and AI. In April, tariffs knocked down expectations for global growth, triggering a bond rally overseas and a stock selloff worldwide. Abroad, the disinflationary shock opened the door for central bank easing in Europe, the UK and Canada.… Read More
Consumers may have felt more generous this holiday season but they haven’t felt more joyful. Two key measures of consumer attitudes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sentiment) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Confidence), remained bleak in December as assessments of current business and labor market conditions continued to deteriorate.… Read More
Investors have had to contend with plenty of noise in 2025. Tariff uncertainty disrupted markets, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed economic data and the Fed resumed its easing cycle after an extended pause. Nevertheless, economic growth held up and equity markets are hovering near all-time highs.… Read More