In a bid to lower mortgage rates, President Trump recently directed two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to purchase $200bn worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). While the details of these purchases remain in flux, the announcement helped 30-yearmortgage rates slide to a 3-year low.… Read More
Heading into 2026, absent any major market shocks, the pieces are in place for one of the strongest years for North American M&A and IPO activity we have ever seen. Favorable economic conditions, an increasingly permissive antitrust agenda in Washington and cheaper financing costs should make it easier to facilitate transactions, with companies now operating in one of the most pro-business deal-making environments in years.… Read More
Markets had a year of low lows and high highs, as two competing dynamics drove asset returns: tariffs and AI. In April, tariffs knocked down expectations for global growth, triggering a bond rally overseas and a stock selloff worldwide. Abroad, the disinflationary shock opened the door for central bank easing in Europe, the UK and Canada.… Read More
Consumers may have felt more generous this holiday season but they haven’t felt more joyful. Two key measures of consumer attitudes, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sentiment) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Confidence), remained bleak in December as assessments of current business and labor market conditions continued to deteriorate.… Read More
Investors have had to contend with plenty of noise in 2025. Tariff uncertainty disrupted markets, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed economic data and the Fed resumed its easing cycle after an extended pause. Nevertheless, economic growth held up and equity markets are hovering near all-time highs.… Read More
Despite being a small part of the economy, the AI data center build-out has quietly become a key driver of growth this year. While many households have not felt this boom directly, they are likely to feel its knock-on effects, particularly in their utility bills.… Read More
The holiday season is off to a very merry start. The five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday raked in a record $44.2bn, up 8% y/y and above expectations. Consumers are on track to spend $250bn for the first time ever this holiday season, yet they couldn’t feel worse.… Read More
Last week marked the first full week since the government reopened, allowing for the release of old and new economic data. The latest figures underscored an important trend: Slack in the labor market is on the rise.
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weekly_market_recap 11-24-2025Download
The longest U.S. government shutdown on record, lasting just over six weeks, ended late last Wednesday. As the dust settles and federal spending resumes, investors are starting to tally the damage.
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weekly_market_recap 11-17-2025Download
The federal government shutdown has now become the longest in history, resulting in a second consecutive missed jobs report from the BLS. In its absence, we can lean on alternative data sources to gauge the health of the labor market. This month, these sources have provided mixed signals.… Read More