Known for its notoriously strict borrowing laws, Germany’s new fiscal spending package has the potential to transform both the country and the broader European Union in the coming decade. The package was proposed as a response to the uncertain future of the long-standing implicit security blanket from the U.S.,… Read More
Entering 2025, investors once again sang the chorus of U.S. exceptionalism. Driven by optimism around AI innovation from mega-cap tech and hopes of pro-business policies, they wondered—why look anywhere else? Yet two risks quietly played in the background: extreme market concentration and stretched valuations.… Read More
After the election, many anticipated that the dollar would continue its upward trajectory, even after hitting its highest level in real effective terms since the 1980s. This was fueled by the belief that the new administration’s policies would stimulate real economic growth and reduce the probability of significant Fed rate cuts in 2025.… Read More
Unrealized policies can have real impacts. Companies pulling forward imports ahead of tariffs propelled the U.S. trade deficit to a record high of $131 billion in January. While exports have remained relatively stable (+1% m/m), importssurged 10%, driven by industrial supplies & materials (+34%).… Read More
The White House’s newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has two primary objectives: cutcosts and improve government efficiency. Initial efforts have focused on federal workforce reductions, starting with abuyout offer accepted by ~75k employees. Shortly thereafter, thousands of federal workers, largely those classifiedas probationary, received layoff notices.… Read More
Gold has been on a tear, climbing 12% year-to-date, nearing $3,000 per troy ounce. This follows an impressive 25.3% surge last year, edging past the S&P 500’s total return. With prices at record highs, investors are questioning what’s behind the rally and what role gold can play in their portfolios.… Read More
Since the pandemic began, the commercial real estate office sector has been one of the most heavily impacted industries as companies adopted work-from-home policies, reducing the need for physical office space in large cities. While much has been written about the demise of the post pandemic office sector, with double-digit vacancy rates and negative net operating income growth over the last three years, is it possible that the sector has reached a turning point in its recovery?… Read More
The current administration is focused on reducing the federal workforce as part of its fiscal strategy, proposing measures like severance packages, hiring freezes, and potential agency eliminations. However, data from the BLS suggests that there may be limited scope for significant cuts.… Read More
With 32% in the Magnificent 7 and another 19% in the rest of the technology sector, the S&P 500 is becoming a concentrated bet. Monday was a painful wakeup call when the release of DeepSeek’s new LLM sent semiconductors and tech tumbling 7.8% and 5.6%, respectively.… Read More
Immediately following his inauguration, President Trump signed a slew of executive orders (“EO”) and made several declarations related to major policy themes from his campaign, including boosting U.S. energy production. These EOs were aimed at deregulating oil drilling (“Drill baby, Drill”) and increasing energy supply.… Read More