Weekly Market Recap – March 23, 2026

2026 is less than three months old, but it’s already been through a lot. So far in the first quarter, software, the S&P 500’s second largest industry, fell by 20%, the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, plunging global trade back into uncertainty, and war broke out in the Middle East. Oil prices rose by 70%, and markets shifted from pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2026 to a 50% chance of a hike. Yet through it all, the S&P 500 is only down 3%. Beneath the surface, these events are roiling company, sector and factor volatility. But, as this week’s chart shows, dispersion is widening, which may be insulating the index. The average rolling 3-month pairwise correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 is 13%, lower than it’s been 98% of the time since 2022.