While all eyes were on the impact of the U.S./Iran war on energy prices in the April CPI report, one area that grabbed investors’ attention was the sharp rise in shelter inflation. Although shelter inflation was up a modest 3.3% y/y, it rose 0.6%m/m– double the 0.3%m/m increase from the March CPI print.… Read More
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, cutting off the world’smost important energy chokepoint. The result has been higher global energy prices, with WTI crude peaking at $112 per barrel, and increased scrutiny of countries’ strategic petroleum reserves, as import-dependent economies receive less oil at a significantly higher cost.… Read More
Last week, five of the Magnificent 7 companies reported earnings, alongside the first estimate of 1Q26 GDP. Taken together, they showed how central the AI cycle has become to both markets and U.S. economic growth. For 1Q26,megacap tech stocks are projected to account for around two thirds of year-over-year earnings growth, while AI-related capex contributed nearly half of the 2% annualized GDP growth.… Read More
When the U.S. launched its initial strikes on Iran on February 28,markets sold off broadly. Equities, fixed income and gold fell, while oil rose on fears of supply disruptions and weaker growth. Investors are now looking past the war, but the rebound has been uneven.… Read More
Equity analysts usually start the year grumpy from the holiday hangover. Over the past 15 years, they’ve revised their EPS estimates down by an average of 2% between January and April. But, as this week’s chart shows, 2026 is a different story.… Read More
Coming into 2026, investors were enthusiastic that fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), particularly larger income tax refunds, would boost growth. The good news is that we estimate the average income tax refund will increase by $400 from2025.… Read More
The onset of the U.S./Iran conflict led to a very challenging month for both stocks and bonds. Fears over higher near term inflation stemming from increased energy prices have sent equity markets lower and yields higher. The 60/40 portfolio’s 3.7% decline in March was its second-worst month on a total return basis since September 2022, when inflation was above 8%.… Read More
For markets, the first quarter has felt like déjà vu. Just like last year, the quarter was marked by sharp swings; only this time, it was the war in the Middle East, not tariffs, keeping investors on edge and volatility elevated.… Read More
2026 is less than three months old, but it’s already been through a lot. So far in the first quarter, software, the S&P 500’s second largest industry, fell by 20%, the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, plunging global trade back into uncertainty, and war broke out in the Middle East.… Read More
Global markets have been volatile in 2026, but few assets have been on as wild a ride as oil. Just last week, WTI crude oil traded in a $43 dollar range, reaching as high as ~$119 per barrel in intra-day trading and as low as ~$76 as the conflict in the Middle East continued to develop.… Read More