According to Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole, the Fed “is navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” In the wake ofthis admission that the outlook is not terribly clear, investors turned their attention to the August CPI report, hoping for abetter view of what might lie on the horizon.… Read More
“Resilient” has been the word often associated with the U.S. economy in 2023, and much of this acclaim owes tostrength in the U.S. consumer. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-09-11-2023
Since the onset of the pandemic, “nearshoring” (moving offshore manufacturing closer to the U.S.) and “friendshoring” (moving offshore manufacturing to places that have strong diplomatic relations with the U.S.) have garnered more interest. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-09-04-2023
Earlier this year, investors largely anticipated that U.S. economic activity, specifically capital spending, would slow dueto the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy. Instead, however, the economy has remained resilient and realnonresidential fixed investment grew 4.6% y/y in 2Q, largely driven by spending on structures and intellectual property.… Read More
Most forecasters entered this year expecting a recession, but recently, economic growth has actually reaccelerated.In fact, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates that the U.S. economy will grow at a 5.8% saar this quarter. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-08-21-2023
As of last Friday’s market close, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 90% of the index’s year-to-date gains.While market breath has been narrow and returns have been highly concentrated, the rally has broadened out relative to May, when the S&P 500’s 10 largest names accounted for all of the year-to-date gains.… Read More
Last week’s employment report painted a nuanced picture of the labor market. While job openings and payroll gainscame in below expectations, wage growth surprised slightly to the upside. This prompts the question: Will wages revertto their previous easing trend? The answer may hinge on how corporations react to the evolving macroeconomicenvironment.… Read More
At their July meeting, the Fed hiked rates by 25bps, as widely expected, to a range of 5.25%-5.50% and deliveredsomewhat dovish messaging. While statement language kept the door open for further rate hikes, commentary fromChairman Powell emphasized continued data dependency in policy decisions.… Read More
In recent weeks, markets absorbed a lot of news pertaining to both sides of the Fed’s mandate, full employment andinflation. In June, payroll job growth declined, the unemployment rate ticked down from 3.7% to 3.6% and wagegrowth remained at 4.4% y/y, neither adding to, nor diminishing, fears of wage inflation.… Read More
June’s CPI report showed gathering disinflation with headline CPI rising 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y on a seasonallyadjusted basis, well below peak inflation of 8.9% y/y a year ago. This trend is not unique to the U.S.: the OECD reportedsoftening inflation in most major economies to 6.5% y/y in May, the lowest level for global inflation since December2021.… Read More