Last week, several leading AI executives called for a slowdown in development, citing concerns that increasingly powerful models could eventually pose significant risks if left unchecked. While the debate has focused on whether companies will continue to develop AI, last week’s 25bp rate hike also raises the question of whether they can continue to fund the AI race.… Read More
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 25bps. The rate hike was unanimous amongst the ECB’s Governing Council and was widely expected by markets, with all eyes now focused on whether they will deliver another rate hike in either of their two remaining meetings this year.… Read More
On the surface, the U.S. labor market remains remarkably strong. The unemployment rate held at just 4.1% in August, lower than it has been 88% of the time over the past 50 years. Yet despite this apparent tightness, wage pressures continue to fade.… Read More
Despite bouts of volatility, markets have been supported by solid economic activity and strong earnings growth throughout 2026. As a result, high yield spreads have narrowed to extremely tight levels, now sitting in the 4th percentile versus history. At the same time, the high yield market has seen a recent uptick in the default rate over the last 12months, currently sitting at 2.0%.… Read More
Semiconductor stocks have faced another bout of volatility, down 20.3% since their peak on June 22, as investors weigh elevated expectations against questions around the sustainability and returns of the AI-related capex. However, sharp swings are nothing new for the sector.… Read More
It is becoming more difficult for investors to find ways to diversify away from AI exposure as it commands a growing share of public and private markets. Hyperscalers, with a seemingly never-ending appetite for fresh capital, have tapped nearly every corner of the capital markets – raising both equity and debt – to fund the AI capex buildout.… Read More
While the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting, the 9–3 vote made it clear that the committee isn’t fully aligned and hasn’t closed the door on tightening later this year. Committee members Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike.… Read More
Last week’s 2Q26 GDP report showed annualized real growth of 1.5% in 2Q26, down from1Q26’s pace of 2.1%. While consumer spending stayed elevated and business fixed investment remained strong amid the AI capex buildout, a few key areas led to the weaker print.… Read More
The average U.S. headline tariff rate has moderated meaningfully from its April 2025 peak, as the authorities under which the administration has
attempted to impose tariffs have continued to evolve. After briefly reaching 18%, the average headline tariff rate has fallen to roughly 10%,
although it remains well above pre-2025 levels.… Read More
With the World Cup kicking off and America’s 250th anniversary around the corner, there is a lot to celebrate here in the U.S. World Cup attendance figures have been very strong so far, averaging over 65,000 attendees per game. Attendance is on pace to surpass the all-time World Cup cumulative tournament attendance record, which was set the last time the tournament was played on U.S.… Read More