While the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting, the 9–3 vote made it clear that the committee isn’t fully aligned and hasn’t closed the door on tightening later this year. Committee members Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike.… Read More
Last week’s 2Q26 GDP report showed annualized real growth of 1.5% in 2Q26, down from1Q26’s pace of 2.1%. While consumer spending stayed elevated and business fixed investment remained strong amid the AI capex buildout, a few key areas led to the weaker print.… Read More
The average U.S. headline tariff rate has moderated meaningfully from its April 2025 peak, as the authorities under which the administration has
attempted to impose tariffs have continued to evolve. After briefly reaching 18%, the average headline tariff rate has fallen to roughly 10%,
although it remains well above pre-2025 levels.… Read More
With the World Cup kicking off and America’s 250th anniversary around the corner, there is a lot to celebrate here in the U.S. World Cup attendance figures have been very strong so far, averaging over 65,000 attendees per game. Attendance is on pace to surpass the all-time World Cup cumulative tournament attendance record, which was set the last time the tournament was played on U.S.… Read More
Since the market lows in March, momentum stocks have pulled meaningfully ahead of quality stocks. Before that, both factors had largely moved together, benefiting from improving earnings expectations and a resilient economic backdrop. More recently, however, investors have rewarded companies exhibiting the strongest earnings and price trends, allowing momentum stocks to extend their lead.… Read More
U.S. companies have an enviable problem: they’re drowning in cash. Since their prior peak in 2021, S&P 500 profit margins have risen 170bps to 15.6%. While the money pot has grown, so too have its uses. CEOs are preparing for the AI era, with capex expected to growth 33% in 2026 on top of 23% in 2025.… Read More
Since bottoming on March 30, U.S. equities have rallied 19% and continue to push to new all-time highs, fueled in large part by sustained enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The first quarter earnings season highlighted extraordinary growth across the AI supply chain.… Read More
Bonds have had a rough start to 2026. 10-year Treasury yields are ~40 bps higher year-to-date, with moves through April driven by higher inflation expectations. The leg up in May, however, has been driven by rising real yields.
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While all eyes were on the impact of the U.S./Iran war on energy prices in the April CPI report, one area that grabbed investors’ attention was the sharp rise in shelter inflation. Although shelter inflation was up a modest 3.3% y/y, it rose 0.6%m/m– double the 0.3%m/m increase from the March CPI print.… Read More
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, cutting off the world’smost important energy chokepoint. The result has been higher global energy prices, with WTI crude peaking at $112 per barrel, and increased scrutiny of countries’ strategic petroleum reserves, as import-dependent economies receive less oil at a significantly higher cost.… Read More