Last week was a volatile ride, as markets digested news of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, the government’s responseand concerns regarding several other banks. Investors are now questioning what this means for their equity portfolios. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-03-20-2023
Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job openings figures, 3.6% and 10.8mrespectively, continued to signal tightness in the labor market. Beneath the surface, there is actually less strengththan meets the eye with wages failing to keep pace with inflation the past 23 months.… Read More
Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetarypolicy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in aterminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023.… Read More
With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported, we are tracking 4Q22 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.37,representing y/y and q/q declines of 13.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Furthermore, S&P 500 operating margins aresitting at 10.8%, down from 13.4% in 4Q21 and 11.3% in 3Q22.… Read More
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January, exceeding expectations, and signaling that the American consumercontinues to spend. After consecutive months of decline into the end of 2022, nominal retail sales jumped by 3%m/m in January. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-02-20-2023
Improving global PMIs and a much better-than-expected employment report have recently given investors new confidence that the economy can avert a near-term recession, boosting market sentiment and stock prices. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-02-13-2023
With about half of market capitalization reporting, our current estimate for 4Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings (EPS) is $50.48, representing a y/y decline of 11.0% and a q/q increase of 0.3%. Commentary accompanying results released thus far suggests the year-over-year contraction in earnings is due to higher labor costs, a deterioration in consumer confidence, a stronger U.S.… Read More
While the federal minimum wage will likely remain unchanged from $7.25, 27 states and D.C. planned stateminimum wage increases for 2023. On January 1, 23 increases went into effect that could drive wage growthhigher in January’s jobs report. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-01.30.2023pdf
While markets have been fairly resilient at the start of the year, recent economic data have pointed to further weakening in the economy. Overall and core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and food) fell sharply in December, and while poor weather conditions may be partly to blame, the data suggest consumers were much more reserved in their spending during the holiday season.… Read More
While the story last year was about inflation peaking, the 2023 narrative is shifting toward how quickly inflation cancool, and furthermore, how much cooling will be sufficient to get the Fed to pause its rate-hiking campaign. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-01-17-2023