For markets, the first quarter has felt like déjà vu. Just like last year, the quarter was marked by sharp swings; only this time, it was the war in the Middle East, not tariffs, keeping investors on edge and volatility elevated.… Read More
2026 is less than three months old, but it’s already been through a lot. So far in the first quarter, software, the S&P 500’s second largest industry, fell by 20%, the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, plunging global trade back into uncertainty, and war broke out in the Middle East.… Read More
Global markets have been volatile in 2026, but few assets have been on as wild a ride as oil. Just last week, WTI crude oil traded in a $43 dollar range, reaching as high as ~$119 per barrel in intra-day trading and as low as ~$76 as the conflict in the Middle East continued to develop.… Read More
Following the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iran’s subsequent response launching attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors, investors have been paying close attention to the conflict’s impact on energy markets. Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, the most important passageway for global energy, carrying 20-25% of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas.… Read More
After declining over 9% last year, marking its worst performance since 2017, the dollar has remained under pressure this year. Investors are questioning whether this reflects a structural shift away from the U.S. and how they should position portfolios.
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New year, new equity market. Value is off to its strongest ever start against growth, and only one Mag 7 is positive, but it’s reasonable to question both the durability and rationality of parts of this rotation. First and foremost, it’s been led by cyclicals like small caps and the energy, industrials and materials sectors.… Read More
After three consecutive years of double-digit gains, including an eye-popping 65% in 2025, investor appetite for gold has never been higher. In recent years, demand for gold has accelerated amid concerns about long-term U.S. fiscal health, geopolitical tensions, inflation and U.S.… Read More
Another government shutdown; another batch of delayed economic data. The most anticipated report last week was the January jobs report, now due out this Wednesday. Our models suggest the economy added 52k jobs in January, although annual revisions may have cut ~1mn jobs from March 2025 payrolls.… Read More
What happens when, after years of near-zero inflation, it finally takes hold, and a heavily indebted government leans on subsidies and tax cuts to shield households? Japan gave markets a live demo this month.
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After three blockbuster years for the S&P 500, investors are questioning whether there’s anymore room to run. The good news is that earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is increasingly fueling the bull market. The share of S&P 500 returns driven by earnings growth rose from just 27% in 2023 to 84% in 2025.… Read More