Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening lifted short-term interest rates to theirhighest levels since the early 2000s. As a result, investors pounced on cash-like products for both safety and incomein 2023, pushing money market fund assets to a record high $5.98 trillion, and this number is still climbing.… Read More
After moving sideways during the first half of 2023, the dollar continued its decline to end 2% down in 2023 (now-11% from its October 2022 peak). In fact, it depreciated against almost every major DM currency except theJapanese yen. After over 10 years of dollar strength, could this be the start of a new cycle?… Read More
2023 market returns presented a mirror image to the declines of 2022. Despite recession fears stoked by tightmonetary policy, banking sector hiccups and elevated geopolitical tensions, all asset classes, save one, experiencedpositive returns. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-1-1-2024
Christmas appears to have come early this year, as investors were given much to celebrate this holiday season.Most notably, at the most recent FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow Federal Reservecolleagues “gifted” investors with a “turtle” dovish pivot, sparking a rally in both stocks and bonds.… Read More
Last week’s retail sales report surprised to the upside, with total retail sales increasing 0.3% m/m on a seasonallyadjusted basis in November. Excluding auto and gas, retail sales increased 0.6% m/m, up from 0.1% growth in October. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-12-18-2023
This year, markets and the Federal Reserve have repeatedly danced the tango, with markets moving forward in anticipation of early interest rate cuts and then stepping back to realign with “Fedspeak” on inflation and the labor market. As the year draws to a close, the dance has resumed.… Read More
Despite a decline over the past few weeks, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate remains at nearly its highest level in 20years and more than double its level at the start of last year. However, it is important to distinguish between the impactof this rate surge on the housing market and on consumption.… Read More
As Americans gathered around the Thanksgiving table last week and recited what they were thankful for, market performance may have made the list, with 60/40 portfolios up 12% this year after a challenging 2022. The path hasn’t beensmooth, with a regional banking crisis, war in the Middle East and hawkish Fed policy all challenging markets.… Read More
It’s not even Thanksgiving yet, but the holiday spending rush has already begun. The National Retail Federation isforecasting holiday spending growth of 3-4% from 2022, totaling between $957.3-$966.6 billion. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-11-20-2023
With almost 90% of market cap having reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are on track to finish 3Q23 +4.5% y/y.While results have fared well this quarter, we are beginning to see a slowdown on a sequential basis. Download Full-Size PDF: Click Here weekly_market_recap-11-13-2023