With 2026 quickly approaching, many Americans are looking forward to unusually large income tax refunds. Next year, we expect a double-digit percentage increase in average personal income tax refunds due to the backdating of tax cuts from the OBBBA to the start of 2025.… Read More
The 3Q25 earnings season is off to a strong start. With 25% of market cap reporting, consensus is projecting year-over year (y/y) EPS growth of 8.5%, slightly above the long-term median of 8.0%. Looking at the three main sources of EPS growth, sales, margins and shares are expected to contribute 5.9, 3.6, and 1.0%-pts, respectively.… Read More
Last Friday marked the 17th day of the government shutdown, leaving investors without government economic data for yet another week. Last week, investors missed out on a key reading of consumer health due to the delay of theSeptember retail sales report.… Read More
The U.S. is known to have the most rigorous and investor friendly corporate governance standards in the world, but other markets are catching up. Asian markets are under going sweeping reforms that are increasing focus on shareholders and driving better returns.… Read More
Drawn to their attractive all-in yields, investors have continued to invest in riskier public and private corporate debt this year, even as high-yield spreads to Treasuries hover around their tightest levels since mid-2007. However, despite still-elevated rates keeping yields enticing, investors should consider the quality of companies backing this debt.… Read More
Gold prices have surged to record highs in recent years, appreciating over 40% year-to-date to $3,775 per troy ounce. Last year, gold rose 27%, out performing the S&P’s total return. While gold demand in volume terms rose just 3% in 2Q25, it has skyrocketed 45% in value terms, according to the World Gold Council, largely driven by central bank buying activity.… Read More
The last two weeks were big ones for monetary policy, with five major central banks announcing their interest rate decisions and signaling the direction of travel. The Fed and Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, while the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan stayed on hold.… Read More
To cut or not to cut? Markets have been weighing each economic data print on the Fed’s balance of risks. As this week’s chart shows, mixed reports on jobs and inflation have sent the scale tipping back and forth, underscoring the difficulty of the Fed’s position.… Read More
Early each month, the BLS releases a slew of labor market indicators that are scrutinized by investors. The most prominent is the Employment Situation (“Jobs”)Report, which recently showed the U.S. economy added just 22k payroll jobs in August. Although crucial, its data are volatile and subject to large revisions, and revisions scheduled for later this week could reveal that ~875k fewer payroll jobs were created during the 12 months ended March 2025 than initially reported.… Read More
Consumers are often considered to be the engine driving the U.S. economy. However, that has not been the case in recent quarters. In fact, much like the U.S. equity market, technology and AI have lately been the key drivers. In 1H25, on average, consumption was responsible for 0.7% of total economic growth compared to an average of 1.7% from 2000-2024.… Read More