The last two weeks were big ones for monetary policy, with five major central banks announcing their interest rate decisions and signaling the direction of travel. The Fed and Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, while the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan stayed on hold.… Read More
To cut or not to cut? Markets have been weighing each economic data print on the Fed’s balance of risks. As this week’s chart shows, mixed reports on jobs and inflation have sent the scale tipping back and forth, underscoring the difficulty of the Fed’s position.… Read More
Early each month, the BLS releases a slew of labor market indicators that are scrutinized by investors. The most prominent is the Employment Situation (“Jobs”)Report, which recently showed the U.S. economy added just 22k payroll jobs in August. Although crucial, its data are volatile and subject to large revisions, and revisions scheduled for later this week could reveal that ~875k fewer payroll jobs were created during the 12 months ended March 2025 than initially reported.… Read More
Consumers are often considered to be the engine driving the U.S. economy. However, that has not been the case in recent quarters. In fact, much like the U.S. equity market, technology and AI have lately been the key drivers. In 1H25, on average, consumption was responsible for 0.7% of total economic growth compared to an average of 1.7% from 2000-2024.… Read More
Despite elevated economic uncertainty in markets during the first half of 2025, private equities have seen a sharp increase in exit activity compared to the first half of 2024. Deal volumes are up 104% y/y to over $330Bn and deal count is up 18% y/y to over 730 deals.… Read More
Economic indicators released this week reflect a complex and evolving macroeconomic landscape, marked by persistent inflationary pressures and a labor market that remains resilient but shows early signs of moderation.
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Recent tariffs are delivering on at least one promise — making the government richer. As the chart of the week shows, net federal tariff revenue reached $60 billion in the first five months of the year, nearly double the same period in 2024.… Read More
Late last week, Israel launched airstrikes aimed at Iranian nuclear capabilities. In response, gold prices surged as investors fled for safety while oil prices, given that Iran produces ~4% of global oil supply, surged over 7%. From an economic perspective, this comes at an interesting time.… Read More
The labor market has been one of the most resilient areas of the economy amid policy uncertainty. Factors contributing to job market strength include companies’ “no-hire, no-fire” approach due to recent labor market tightness, robust consumer spending, and strength in certain sectors like defense and health care.… Read More
For many Americans, buying a home has simply become unaffordable in recent years. In April, the median sales price of an existing single-family home was $413k, up 2% year over-year, and a staggering 45% from April 2020. Similarly, the median sales price of a new single-family home in April was $410k, and while it was down 2% year-over-year, it was still up 31% from April 2020.… Read More