For many Americans, buying a home has simply become unaffordable in recent years. In April, the median sales price of an existing single-family home was $413k, up 2% year over-year, and a staggering 45% from April 2020. Similarly, the median sales price of a new single-family home in April was $410k, and while it was down 2% year-over-year, it was still up 31% from April 2020.… Read More
On May 5, the U.S. Department of Education resumed collections for defaulted federal student loans. This news was accompanied by a dramatic spike in student loan delinquencies in 1Q25, up to 8.2% from 0.9% in 4Q24, as noted in a recent report from our Investment Bank colleagues.… Read More
Last week, investors received data offering a first read on whether tariffs are starting to push prices higher. At first glance, they don’t seem to be, with headline CPI rising just 0.2% m/m—a surprisingly soft outcome given the inflationary nature of tariffs.… Read More
Tariffs may be the market’s new favorite buzzword, but the Mag 7 are putting up another quarter of magnificent earnings growth. With 6 out of the 7 reporting, earnings have come in 11.3% above consensus estimates, the largest surprise since 3Q23.… Read More
Last week’s busy slate of data helped give investors a better idea of how the economy is faring amid policy uncertainty. The 1Q25 GDP report revealed the U.S. may be closer to recession than expected, with a tariff-driven spike in imports dragging real growth down 0.3% annualized.… Read More
As the world braces for the tariff impacts on the global economy, the IMF’s latest forecasts, notably weaker than the last revision in October 2024, highlight which countries are likely to bear the brunt of the trade war. Unsurprisingly, the U.S.… Read More
Markets are forward looking, but earnings estimates don’t have to be. Currently, consensus is projecting 1Q25 and FY25 year-over-year EPS growth of 7.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Relative to 10-year medians of 4.4% and 3.1%, both estimates are strong.
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Last week’s erratic market moves were disorienting. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out its worst four-day stretch since the pandemic, falling over 12% after the administration announced tariffs that exceeded market expectations. Shortly after, news that these tariffs would be suspended for most countries fueled a 9.5% market rally, the largest one day gain since 2008.… Read More
While new tariffs sparked a market sell off, the March Jobs report provided some good news in an otherwise volatile week. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228k, well above expectations of 135k. However, revisions put this report more in line with expectations, removing 48k jobs from gains from the prior two months.… Read More
Known for its notoriously strict borrowing laws, Germany’s new fiscal spending package has the potential to transform both the country and the broader European Union in the coming decade. The package was proposed as a response to the uncertain future of the long-standing implicit security blanket from the U.S.,… Read More