As the world braces for the tariff impacts on the global economy, the IMF’s latest forecasts, notably weaker than the last revision in October 2024, highlight which countries are likely to bear the brunt of the trade war. Unsurprisingly, the U.S.… Read More
Markets are forward looking, but earnings estimates don’t have to be. Currently, consensus is projecting 1Q25 and FY25 year-over-year EPS growth of 7.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Relative to 10-year medians of 4.4% and 3.1%, both estimates are strong.
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Last week’s erratic market moves were disorienting. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out its worst four-day stretch since the pandemic, falling over 12% after the administration announced tariffs that exceeded market expectations. Shortly after, news that these tariffs would be suspended for most countries fueled a 9.5% market rally, the largest one day gain since 2008.… Read More
While new tariffs sparked a market sell off, the March Jobs report provided some good news in an otherwise volatile week. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228k, well above expectations of 135k. However, revisions put this report more in line with expectations, removing 48k jobs from gains from the prior two months.… Read More
Known for its notoriously strict borrowing laws, Germany’s new fiscal spending package has the potential to transform both the country and the broader European Union in the coming decade. The package was proposed as a response to the uncertain future of the long-standing implicit security blanket from the U.S.,… Read More
Entering 2025, investors once again sang the chorus of U.S. exceptionalism. Driven by optimism around AI innovation from mega-cap tech and hopes of pro-business policies, they wondered—why look anywhere else? Yet two risks quietly played in the background: extreme market concentration and stretched valuations.… Read More
After the election, many anticipated that the dollar would continue its upward trajectory, even after hitting its highest level in real effective terms since the 1980s. This was fueled by the belief that the new administration’s policies would stimulate real economic growth and reduce the probability of significant Fed rate cuts in 2025.… Read More
Unrealized policies can have real impacts. Companies pulling forward imports ahead of tariffs propelled the U.S. trade deficit to a record high of $131 billion in January. While exports have remained relatively stable (+1% m/m), importssurged 10%, driven by industrial supplies & materials (+34%).… Read More
The White House’s newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has two primary objectives: cutcosts and improve government efficiency. Initial efforts have focused on federal workforce reductions, starting with abuyout offer accepted by ~75k employees. Shortly thereafter, thousands of federal workers, largely those classifiedas probationary, received layoff notices.… Read More
Gold has been on a tear, climbing 12% year-to-date, nearing $3,000 per troy ounce. This follows an impressive 25.3% surge last year, edging past the S&P 500’s total return. With prices at record highs, investors are questioning what’s behind the rally and what role gold can play in their portfolios.… Read More