Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetarypolicy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in aterminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023.… Read More
With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported, we are tracking 4Q22 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.37,representing y/y and q/q declines of 13.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Furthermore, S&P 500 operating margins aresitting at 10.8%, down from 13.4% in 4Q21 and 11.3% in 3Q22.… Read More
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January, exceeding expectations, and signaling that the American consumercontinues to spend. After consecutive months of decline into the end of 2022, nominal retail sales jumped by 3%m/m in January.
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weekly_market_recap-02-20-2023
Improving global PMIs and a much better-than-expected employment report have recently given investors new confidence that the economy can avert a near-term recession, boosting market sentiment and stock prices.
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weekly_market_recap-02-13-2023
With about half of market capitalization reporting, our current estimate for 4Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings (EPS) is $50.48, representing a y/y decline of 11.0% and a q/q increase of 0.3%. Commentary accompanying results released thus far suggests the year-over-year contraction in earnings is due to higher labor costs, a deterioration in consumer confidence, a stronger U.S.… Read More
While the federal minimum wage will likely remain unchanged from $7.25, 27 states and D.C. planned stateminimum wage increases for 2023. On January 1, 23 increases went into effect that could drive wage growthhigher in January’s jobs report.
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weekly_market_recap-01.30.2023pdf
While markets have been fairly resilient at the start of the year, recent economic data have pointed to further weakening in the economy. Overall and core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and food) fell sharply in December, and while poor weather conditions may be partly to blame, the data suggest consumers were much more reserved in their spending during the holiday season.… Read More
While the story last year was about inflation peaking, the 2023 narrative is shifting toward how quickly inflation cancool, and furthermore, how much cooling will be sufficient to get the Fed to pause its rate-hiking campaign.
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weekly_market_recap-01-17-2023
The U.S. labor market was a shining star in 2022 against a dim economic backdrop of tighter financial conditions and recession fears. Although real GDP normally outpaces payroll employment, due to rising labor productivity, payrolls grew more rapidly than real GDP growth in 2022, flipping the script on this dynamic.… Read More
2022 was a difficult year for the public markets, as positive stock-bond correlations offered investors little to no protection against the macroeconomic backdrop of persistently high inflation, hawkish monetary policy and heightened geopolitical tensions
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weekly_market_recap-01-02-2023
Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetarypolicy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in aterminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023.… Read More