Immediately following his inauguration, President Trump signed a slew of executive orders (“EO”) and made several declarations related to major policy themes from his campaign, including boosting U.S. energy production. These EOs were aimed at deregulating oil drilling (“Drill baby, Drill”) and increasing energy supply.… Read More
With different data sources telling different stories, last year was confusing for labor market observers. The closelywatched Jobs report, for example, leverages two surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. Whileboth surveys showed impressive job growth in December 2024, the longer-term trends diverge.… Read More
It was another great year for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 rose 23% and hit 57 new all-time highs along the way, the most since 1928. Once again, we have AI to thank for this spectacular performance. The Magnificent 7 rallied 48%, and for the second year in a row, technology, communication services and consumer discretionary were the top performing sectors, while semiconductors & semiconductor equipment was the top performing industry.… Read More
2024 saw strong returns overall, but with greater variability in performance across asset classes compared to 2023. Headlines were dominated by tragic conflicts, the U.S. election and soft vs. hard landing debates, but fundamentals remained the key driver of returns.
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Investors have had reason to cheer in 2024, as economic growth held up better than expected and equity markets hit 57 new all-time highs. But, there are still a few lumps of coal under the tree. Progress on inflation has stalled and consumers continue to feel the sting of higher prices this holiday season.… Read More
This year’s heightened bond market volatility has kept investors on their toes. With the Fed starting its easing cycle in September – later than initially anticipated – concerns are now emerging about whether the cycle will end sooner than expected. Last week’s inflation report was in sharp focus as investors sought answers to three key questions: has inflation progress stalled, could proposed tariffs derail it and what might the Fed do next?… Read More
The U.S. labor market, while having cooled from its red-hot state, has settled into a relatively healthy position. Following a month of hiring disruptions due to hurricanes and strikes, businesses added 227K jobs in November. However, the uneven nature of recent job growth has led many to question the true health of the labor market.… Read More
Understanding the labor market landscape is like piecing together a complex puzzle. On November 20th, a new piece was added with the release of the 2Q Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is based on administrative records from unemployment insurance programs and covers approximately 97% of U.S.… Read More
This Thanksgiving, as families gather around the table, the festivities provide a welcome reprieve from the political tensions of recent months. With Americans expected to spend nearly a trillion dollars spreading holiday cheer, this spending showcases their resilience in a shifting economic landscape.… Read More
In September, the Fed kicked off its cutting cycle because “the balance of risks” had shifted. But subsequent economic data and the election results could be shifting it back. This week’s chart shows both growth and the labor market are tracking stronger than the Fed expected, posing upside risk to inflation.… Read More