Understanding the labor market landscape is like piecing together a complex puzzle. On November 20th, a new piece was added with the release of the 2Q Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is based on administrative records from unemployment insurance programs and covers approximately 97% of U.S.… Read More
This Thanksgiving, as families gather around the table, the festivities provide a welcome reprieve from the political tensions of recent months. With Americans expected to spend nearly a trillion dollars spreading holiday cheer, this spending showcases their resilience in a shifting economic landscape.… Read More
In September, the Fed kicked off its cutting cycle because “the balance of risks” had shifted. But subsequent economic data and the election results could be shifting it back. This week’s chart shows both growth and the labor market are tracking stronger than the Fed expected, posing upside risk to inflation.… Read More
As the dust settles post-election, investors are keenly assessing what the next four years might bring. Despite the policy uncertainties that accompany a unified Republican government, the economic outlook remains largely stable. Additionally, market fundamentals look strong and matter more for returns, especially over the long term.… Read More
2024 has been a banner year for gold. Now worth $2,736 per troy ounce, the precious metal has climbed over 30%, on pace for its best year since 1979, and set 41 all-time highs. Since gold doesn’t produce income, its price is typically inversely correlated to real interest rates.… Read More
In a year with growth, inflation, interest rate, fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty, there has been one thing to count on: the American consumer. Despite rising delinquencies and data that until recently showed a historically low saving rate, consumer spending has defied expectations of a slowdown.… Read More
And we’re off! The 3Q earnings season began last Friday with reports from the largest U.S. banks. Currently, analysts are projecting pro forma earnings per share (EPS) of $60.01. If realized, this would represent y/y growth of 1.9% and a q/q contraction of -0.9%.… Read More
In late September, Israel launched an offensive into Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. In response, Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Israel has vowed to retaliate. Along with devastating humanitarian consequences, further escalation could spike oil prices.… Read More
After 26 months of inversion, the yield curve, measured by the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries, has returned to its normal upward sloping form. Since the July Jobs report, the curve has bull steepened, meaning the 2-year yield has fallen faster than the 10-year yield, causing it to un-invert earlier this month.… Read More
Last week, the Fed kicked off its much-anticipated easing cycle with a bold move. It cut the policy rate by a jumbo 50bps, surprising many who expected a more regular 25bps cut seen at the start of a soft-landing easing cycle.… Read More