The story for the U.S. economy this year has largely been about battling record-high inflation, which has left bothequity and fixed income markets bumpier than a ride on Santa’s sleigh. While we do expect a steady deceleration ininflation next year, the rate of inflation is still elevated relative to history, even after coming in below expectations forthe second consecutive month in November.… Read More
As we enter the final stretch of the year, the U.S. economy is running on low gas against strong headwinds. Economicdata this week showed a picture of declining industrial production, manufacturing and services PMIs and retailsales.
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This week, investors will gain further clarity on whether the recent inflation downtrend is sticking and the Fed’s timingon a policy pivot. `
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Dec-12-weekly_market_recap
Last week’s job data supported a reoccurring theme – the labor market is cooling from a position of strength. According to the October JOLTs report, there are still more jobs than Americans looking – now at a 1.7 openings/available worker from 2 to 1 earlier this year.… Read More
Headlines have been dominated by the better-than-expected October CPI report, but this improvement in inflation will likely be overshadowed by a deteriorating growth outlook in the coming months. Looking at the basic building blocks of gross domestic product (GDP), we see weakness across a variety of sectors, with homebuilding set to slow significantly and higher rates to weigh on inventories, business investment and exports.… Read More
As Americans head to the grocery store this week to stock up on ingredients, they may be frustrated to discover that the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner is a whopping 20% higher than last year, according to a survey by the American Farm Bureau.… Read More
After peaking at 9.1% y/y in June, inflation has slowly been receding. The October CPI report confirmed this trajectory as headline CPI surprised to the downside at 7.7% y/y – its smallest y/y increase since January.
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Weekly-Market-Recap-11.14.22
The October Jobs report saw a stronger-than-expected gain of 261,000 non-farm payroll jobs. However, with the unemployment rate edging up to 3.7%, the stubbornly tight labor market may be gradually softening.
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With over half of the market reporting, our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $52.42. If realized, this would represent y/y growth of 0.8% and q/q growth of 11.9%.
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