Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered what many expect to be the last rate hike of this cycle, bringing the federalfunds rate to a range of 5.00-5.25%. With the Fed now potentially on pause, at least for a while, investors are shiftingtheir focus away from the risk of further Fed tightening and towards the risk of recession, as the fallout from theregional banking crisis casts a shadow on the economic outlook.… Read More
At the March meeting, 17 out of 18 FOMC participants believed the federal funds rate needs to be 25bps higher atthe end of 2023 than its current target range of 4.75% to 5.00%. Going into this week’s meeting, the question iswhether enough has changed over the last six weeks to convince a sufficient share of voting members to changetheir mind.… Read More
Last month’s CPI report showed shelter prices growing at the slowest rate since November 2022 at 0.6% m/m.Despite still-elevated y/y growth of 8.2%, this reading was an encouraging sign the CPI measure is finally beginning tofactor in the housing market slowdown that started last year.… Read More
The 1Q 2023 earnings season is underway, with the large U.S. banks releasing results last Friday. Current analystestimates are tracking operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.54 ($39.73 ex-financials), representing y/y growth of0.4% and a q/q decline of 1.6%.
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weekly_market_recap-04-17-2023
The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. However, as weshow in this week’s chart, since late March, the economic data have disappointed and are pointing toward waningmomentum in the U.S. economy.
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weekly_market_recap-04-10-2023
Market volatility persisted during 1Q23, but several of 2022’s underperformers experienced a notable turnaround, highlighting investors’ willingness to look beyond near-term challenges and to front run a dovish shift in monetarypolicy.
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weekly_market_recap-04-03-2023
Last week was a volatile ride, as markets digested news of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, the government’s responseand concerns regarding several other banks. Investors are now questioning what this means for their equity portfolios.
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weekly_market_recap-03-20-2023
Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job openings figures, 3.6% and 10.8mrespectively, continued to signal tightness in the labor market. Beneath the surface, there is actually less strengththan meets the eye with wages failing to keep pace with inflation the past 23 months.… Read More
Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetarypolicy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in aterminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023.… Read More
With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported, we are tracking 4Q22 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.37,representing y/y and q/q declines of 13.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Furthermore, S&P 500 operating margins aresitting at 10.8%, down from 13.4% in 4Q21 and 11.3% in 3Q22.… Read More