The 1Q 2023 earnings season is underway, with the large U.S. banks releasing results last Friday. Current analystestimates are tracking operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.54 ($39.73 ex-financials), representing y/y growth of0.4% and a q/q decline of 1.6%.
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weekly_market_recap-04-17-2023
The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. However, as weshow in this week’s chart, since late March, the economic data have disappointed and are pointing toward waningmomentum in the U.S. economy.
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weekly_market_recap-04-10-2023
Market volatility persisted during 1Q23, but several of 2022’s underperformers experienced a notable turnaround, highlighting investors’ willingness to look beyond near-term challenges and to front run a dovish shift in monetarypolicy.
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weekly_market_recap-04-03-2023
Last week was a volatile ride, as markets digested news of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, the government’s responseand concerns regarding several other banks. Investors are now questioning what this means for their equity portfolios.
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weekly_market_recap-03-20-2023
Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job openings figures, 3.6% and 10.8mrespectively, continued to signal tightness in the labor market. Beneath the surface, there is actually less strengththan meets the eye with wages failing to keep pace with inflation the past 23 months.… Read More
Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetarypolicy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in aterminal rate of 4.9% and a year-end rate of 4.4%, implying two rate cuts by the end of 2023.… Read More
With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported, we are tracking 4Q22 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.37,representing y/y and q/q declines of 13.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Furthermore, S&P 500 operating margins aresitting at 10.8%, down from 13.4% in 4Q21 and 11.3% in 3Q22.… Read More
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January, exceeding expectations, and signaling that the American consumercontinues to spend. After consecutive months of decline into the end of 2022, nominal retail sales jumped by 3%m/m in January.
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weekly_market_recap-02-20-2023
Improving global PMIs and a much better-than-expected employment report have recently given investors new confidence that the economy can avert a near-term recession, boosting market sentiment and stock prices.
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weekly_market_recap-02-13-2023
With about half of market capitalization reporting, our current estimate for 4Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings (EPS) is $50.48, representing a y/y decline of 11.0% and a q/q increase of 0.3%. Commentary accompanying results released thus far suggests the year-over-year contraction in earnings is due to higher labor costs, a deterioration in consumer confidence, a stronger U.S.… Read More