Entering 2023, many analysts had penciled in a mild U.S. recession by mid-year. However, strong incoming economicdata kept delaying the start date. Growth remained steady in the first half of the year, despite a hiccup in 1Q23 due tothe regional banking crisis, and, more recently, a combination of positive impulses boosted 3Q23 GDP growth to a realannualized rate of 4.9% – the fastest pace in two years.… Read More
Consumer strength has been one of the great surprises of 2023. Recent comprehensive GDP revisions suggest thatconsumers still have a sizable excess savings cushion accumulated from government aid during the pandemic.
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weekly_market_recap-10-23-2023
Headline inflation rose 0.4% m/m and 3.7% y/y in September, partly due to higher energy prices with the gasoline CPIcomponent rising 2.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y. However, there could be better news coming on this front. This week’s chartshows daily gasoline prices, WTI crude oil prices and the spread between the two, which reflects taxes, distributioncosts and, most importantly, refining margins.… Read More
Inventory levels are a key driver of economic momentum as businesses decide to cut or add to stock piles to keep themat an optimal level, but what is an optimal level? The monthly ISM reports ask service providers and manufacturers howthey feel about current inventory levels.… Read More
Resilient economic activity during the third quarter helped spur excitement for a “soft-landing” of the U.S. economy.However, the quarter was less exciting for financial markets, which struggled as investors re-positioned for higher ratesfor longer.
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weekly_market_recap-10-02-2023
Last week, the FOMC left policy rates unchanged at the current range of 5.25-5.50%. In its post-meeting statement,the FOMC maintained its hawkish bias, noting the “solid pace” of economic growth and that “inflation remains elevated.”
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weekly_market_recap-09-25-2023
According to Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole, the Fed “is navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” In the wake ofthis admission that the outlook is not terribly clear, investors turned their attention to the August CPI report, hoping for abetter view of what might lie on the horizon.… Read More
“Resilient” has been the word often associated with the U.S. economy in 2023, and much of this acclaim owes tostrength in the U.S. consumer.
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weekly_market_recap-09-11-2023
Since the onset of the pandemic, “nearshoring” (moving offshore manufacturing closer to the U.S.) and “friendshoring” (moving offshore manufacturing to places that have strong diplomatic relations with the U.S.) have garnered more interest.
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weekly_market_recap-09-04-2023
Earlier this year, investors largely anticipated that U.S. economic activity, specifically capital spending, would slow dueto the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy. Instead, however, the economy has remained resilient and realnonresidential fixed investment grew 4.6% y/y in 2Q, largely driven by spending on structures and intellectual property.… Read More