With almost 90% of market cap having reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are on track to finish 3Q23 +4.5% y/y.While results have fared well this quarter, we are beginning to see a slowdown on a sequential basis.
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weekly_market_recap-11-13-2023
In last Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that wage inflation has “come downsignificantly” but suggested economic and labor market conditions likely need to come further into balance to bringinflation back to target. With this in mind, some may fear that continued labor market strength could stall furtherprogress on wage growth and inflation.… Read More
Entering 2023, many analysts had penciled in a mild U.S. recession by mid-year. However, strong incoming economicdata kept delaying the start date. Growth remained steady in the first half of the year, despite a hiccup in 1Q23 due tothe regional banking crisis, and, more recently, a combination of positive impulses boosted 3Q23 GDP growth to a realannualized rate of 4.9% – the fastest pace in two years.… Read More
Consumer strength has been one of the great surprises of 2023. Recent comprehensive GDP revisions suggest thatconsumers still have a sizable excess savings cushion accumulated from government aid during the pandemic.
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weekly_market_recap-10-23-2023
Headline inflation rose 0.4% m/m and 3.7% y/y in September, partly due to higher energy prices with the gasoline CPIcomponent rising 2.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y. However, there could be better news coming on this front. This week’s chartshows daily gasoline prices, WTI crude oil prices and the spread between the two, which reflects taxes, distributioncosts and, most importantly, refining margins.… Read More
Inventory levels are a key driver of economic momentum as businesses decide to cut or add to stock piles to keep themat an optimal level, but what is an optimal level? The monthly ISM reports ask service providers and manufacturers howthey feel about current inventory levels.… Read More
Resilient economic activity during the third quarter helped spur excitement for a “soft-landing” of the U.S. economy.However, the quarter was less exciting for financial markets, which struggled as investors re-positioned for higher ratesfor longer.
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weekly_market_recap-10-02-2023
Last week, the FOMC left policy rates unchanged at the current range of 5.25-5.50%. In its post-meeting statement,the FOMC maintained its hawkish bias, noting the “solid pace” of economic growth and that “inflation remains elevated.”
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weekly_market_recap-09-25-2023
According to Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole, the Fed “is navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” In the wake ofthis admission that the outlook is not terribly clear, investors turned their attention to the August CPI report, hoping for abetter view of what might lie on the horizon.… Read More
“Resilient” has been the word often associated with the U.S. economy in 2023, and much of this acclaim owes tostrength in the U.S. consumer.
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weekly_market_recap-09-11-2023