Weekly Market Recap – August 10, 2026

While the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting, the 9–3 vote made it clear that the committee isn’t fully aligned and hasn’t closed the door on tightening later this year. Committee members Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Notably, these were the same three who pushed to remove the easing-bias language in April. While the July jobs report reduced the odds of a September hike, the pattern remains clear: There’s a consistent hawkish bloc pressing for a tighter stance. Our base case is the Fed staying on hold, but in the case they do hike rates, short-term yields would likely reprice quickly and that shift could carry through to the broader bond market.