On May 5, the U.S. Department of Education resumed collections for defaulted federal student loans. This news was accompanied by a dramatic spike in student loan delinquencies in 1Q25, up to 8.2% from 0.9% in 4Q24, as noted in a recent report from our Investment Bank colleagues.… Read More
Last week, investors received data offering a first read on whether tariffs are starting to push prices higher. At first glance, they don’t seem to be, with headline CPI rising just 0.2% m/m—a surprisingly soft outcome given the inflationary nature of tariffs.… Read More
Today’s tariff turmoil
Barely a quarter of 2025 has passed, and we’ve experienced more than enough excitement for a whole year. Markets have been whipsawed by unpredictable shifts in trade rhetoric and policy announcements, with the Trump administration repeatedly issuing harsh tariff threats only to soften them days later.… Read More
Tariffs may be the market’s new favorite buzzword, but the Mag 7 are putting up another quarter of magnificent earnings growth. With 6 out of the 7 reporting, earnings have come in 11.3% above consensus estimates, the largest surprise since 3Q23.… Read More
Niall Ferguson, a well-known historian and Harvard University professor, coined the term “Chimerica” in 2006. It was a clever way to underscore the fact that the Chinese and American economies had become so intertwined that they could be viewed as one economy.… Read More
Last week’s busy slate of data helped give investors a better idea of how the economy is faring amid policy uncertainty. The 1Q25 GDP report revealed the U.S. may be closer to recession than expected, with a tariff-driven spike in imports dragging real growth down 0.3% annualized.… Read More
Tariffs and trade wars and bears, oh my!
Recent weeks have clearly reminded us that we always face the risk of (sometimes severe) market turbulence. When challenging conditions actually materialize, we continue to preach patience and diversification.
Patience is a virtue…
When periods of heightened volatility unfold, all investors experience negative—sometimes viscerally negative—emotions, and those emotions tend to push us into a fight-or-flight mindset.… Read More
As the world braces for the tariff impacts on the global economy, the IMF’s latest forecasts, notably weaker than the last revision in October 2024, highlight which countries are likely to bear the brunt of the trade war. Unsurprisingly, the U.S.… Read More
Markets are forward looking, but earnings estimates don’t have to be. Currently, consensus is projecting 1Q25 and FY25 year-over-year EPS growth of 7.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Relative to 10-year medians of 4.4% and 3.1%, both estimates are strong.
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Unpacking New Tariffs and the Effect on Markets
Stocks can climb a wall of worry, but will never climb a wall of uncertainty
In the complex dance of global trade, few policy tools generate as much debate as tariffs. Simply defined, a tariff is a tax imposed by one country on goods imported from another.… Read More