After 26 months of inversion, the yield curve, measured by the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries, has returned to its normal upward sloping form. Since the July Jobs report, the curve has bull steepened, meaning the 2-year yield has fallen faster than the 10-year yield, causing it to un-invert earlier this month.… Read More
Last week, the Fed kicked off its much-anticipated easing cycle with a bold move. It cut the policy rate by a jumbo 50bps, surprising many who expected a more regular 25bps cut seen at the start of a soft-landing easing cycle.… Read More
The Fed has a dual mandate of promoting low inflation and full employment. In many ways, those two mandates are at odds with one another. The Fed seeks to balance low inflation and full employment by adjusting short-term interest rates.
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On The Mark Special Edition September 2024_Fed Rate Cut
It’s all relative when it comes to growth. S&P 500 4Q earnings are expected to grow by 16% y/y and 14% ex-Magnificent 7. However, it’s important to put these numbers in the context of the 2022 earnings recession.
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weekly_market_recap 09-16-2024
Leaves aren’t the only thing falling in September. The Fed is gearing up to cut rates, which has the potential to alter theinvestment landscape, prompting investors to review their portfolio allocations. In a falling rate environment, it’s often wise to lean more toward fixed income, especially longer duration bonds.… Read More
Data revisions are adding to difficulties in assessing the strength of the post-pandemic economy. One example of this was a very large downward adjustment to payroll employment numbers in the recent annual benchmarking
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weekly_market_recap 09-02-2024
Initial jobless claims have risen in recent months, averaging 236k since early June versus 213k in the first five months of 2024. Claims were volatile in July and, on two occasions, spiked to their highest levels since last August. This, in tandem with a weaker Jobs report, stoked fears of a rapidly cooling labor market.… Read More
Recent data have sent mixed signals about the U.S. economy, causing interest rate expectations to fluctuate once again. Just two weeks ago, a weak jobs report sparked recession fears, and markets swiftly priced in an additional rate cut for this year.… Read More
Last week’s jobs report showed that the labor market is losing momentum at a faster than expected pace. While a 4.3% unemployment rate is still historically low, it has risen 0.6% since January, marking the fastest rise in a six-month period since the pandemic.… Read More
While the recent political developments in Washington have grabbed headlines, it is important for investors not to lose sight of the fundamentals. The 2Q24 earnings season is underway, and by the end of last week, nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap had already reported their earnings.… Read More