And we’re off! The 3Q earnings season began last Friday with reports from the largest U.S. banks. Currently, analysts are projecting pro forma earnings per share (EPS) of $60.01. If realized, this would represent y/y growth of 1.9% and a q/q contraction of -0.9%.… Read More
Election day is almost upon us in what could be one of the closest elections in U.S. history. Most polls show Trump and Harris in a dead heat or a slight difference, well within the margin of error.
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On The Mark October 2024_ Election Day
In late September, Israel launched an offensive into Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. In response, Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Israel has vowed to retaliate. Along with devastating humanitarian consequences, further escalation could spike oil prices.… Read More
After 26 months of inversion, the yield curve, measured by the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries, has returned to its normal upward sloping form. Since the July Jobs report, the curve has bull steepened, meaning the 2-year yield has fallen faster than the 10-year yield, causing it to un-invert earlier this month.… Read More
Last week, the Fed kicked off its much-anticipated easing cycle with a bold move. It cut the policy rate by a jumbo 50bps, surprising many who expected a more regular 25bps cut seen at the start of a soft-landing easing cycle.… Read More
The Fed has a dual mandate of promoting low inflation and full employment. In many ways, those two mandates are at odds with one another. The Fed seeks to balance low inflation and full employment by adjusting short-term interest rates.
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On The Mark Special Edition September 2024_Fed Rate Cut
It’s all relative when it comes to growth. S&P 500 4Q earnings are expected to grow by 16% y/y and 14% ex-Magnificent 7. However, it’s important to put these numbers in the context of the 2022 earnings recession.
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weekly_market_recap 09-16-2024
Leaves aren’t the only thing falling in September. The Fed is gearing up to cut rates, which has the potential to alter theinvestment landscape, prompting investors to review their portfolio allocations. In a falling rate environment, it’s often wise to lean more toward fixed income, especially longer duration bonds.… Read More
Data revisions are adding to difficulties in assessing the strength of the post-pandemic economy. One example of this was a very large downward adjustment to payroll employment numbers in the recent annual benchmarking
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weekly_market_recap 09-02-2024
Initial jobless claims have risen in recent months, averaging 236k since early June versus 213k in the first five months of 2024. Claims were volatile in July and, on two occasions, spiked to their highest levels since last August. This, in tandem with a weaker Jobs report, stoked fears of a rapidly cooling labor market.… Read More