Initial jobless claims have risen in recent months, averaging 236k since early June versus 213k in the first five months of 2024. Claims were volatile in July and, on two occasions, spiked to their highest levels since last August. This, in tandem with a weaker Jobs report, stoked fears of a rapidly cooling labor market.… Read More
Recent data have sent mixed signals about the U.S. economy, causing interest rate expectations to fluctuate once again. Just two weeks ago, a weak jobs report sparked recession fears, and markets swiftly priced in an additional rate cut for this year.… Read More
Last week’s jobs report showed that the labor market is losing momentum at a faster than expected pace. While a 4.3% unemployment rate is still historically low, it has risen 0.6% since January, marking the fastest rise in a six-month period since the pandemic.… Read More
While the recent political developments in Washington have grabbed headlines, it is important for investors not to lose sight of the fundamentals. The 2Q24 earnings season is underway, and by the end of last week, nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap had already reported their earnings.… Read More
Like 2022, 2023 was a stagnant year for private equity (PE). Against a backdrop of higher interest rates and economicuncertainty, PE exit activity slowed as buyers and sellers struggled to find common ground on valuations. However,recent data suggest that the worst of the exit activity slump may be behind us.… Read More
The Misery Index, a gauge of economic health calculated by summing the year-over-year CPI inflation rate and the unemployment rate, fell to 7.1% in June. By this measure, the economy today is stronger than it has been 70% of the timesince 1948.… Read More
Summer travel is more than just sightseeing; it’s a critical economic driver for many countries. The European Commission estimates that tourism makes up to 10% of the EU’s annual GDP and as much as 25% for some individual countries as this week’s chart illustrates.… Read More
Railroads, plastic, cars, oil, landlines, internet. AI might be new, but innovations that spur secular investment cycles are not. Companies in these high growth industries have long leveraged their first mover advantage to develop seemingly impenetrable moats, allowing some to dominate the S&P 500’s top 10 podium for decades.… Read More
2024 began with consensus expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar due to stretched valuations. However, nearly halfway through the year, the dollar index (DXY) has gained around 4.4% year-to-date, raising questions if the consensus has changed.
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An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on short-term Treasuries exceed those offered by long-term Treasuries. Historically, an inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has been viewed as a warning sign of an economic downturn, although this time, for now, appears to be different.… Read More