A word about recessions.
Are we still going to see one this year?
Let’s discuss.
Why did so many people think a recession was coming?
Inflation and interest rates, primarily.
Historically high inflation has cast a pall over the economy since early 2021.1
In response, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly to bring inflation back down.… Read More
Last week’s employment report painted a nuanced picture of the labor market. While job openings and payroll gainscame in below expectations, wage growth surprised slightly to the upside. This prompts the question: Will wages revertto their previous easing trend? The answer may hinge on how corporations react to the evolving macroeconomicenvironment.… Read More
At their July meeting, the Fed hiked rates by 25bps, as widely expected, to a range of 5.25%-5.50% and deliveredsomewhat dovish messaging. While statement language kept the door open for further rate hikes, commentary fromChairman Powell emphasized continued data dependency in policy decisions.… Read More
In recent weeks, markets absorbed a lot of news pertaining to both sides of the Fed’s mandate, full employment andinflation. In June, payroll job growth declined, the unemployment rate ticked down from 3.7% to 3.6% and wagegrowth remained at 4.4% y/y, neither adding to, nor diminishing, fears of wage inflation.… Read More
The stock market (S&P 500 index) is up nearly 17% for the first half and has proven surprisingly resilient despite numerous challenges. These include ongoing recession worries, instability in regional banks, and high inflation.
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On-The-Mark_-The-_Artificial_-Magic-in-the-Stock-Market-Rally-July-2023
The Financial QuarterlyAfter a strong start to the year, stocks shrugged off bank woes, debt ceiling gridlock, and recession jitters to turn out a powerful Q2 performance.1Is the bear market finally over? Will we see more volatility ahead?Let’s take a look at what happened in Q2 and what might be in store for Q3.Looking… Read More
June’s CPI report showed gathering disinflation with headline CPI rising 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y on a seasonallyadjusted basis, well below peak inflation of 8.9% y/y a year ago. This trend is not unique to the U.S.: the OECD reportedsoftening inflation in most major economies to 6.5% y/y in May, the lowest level for global inflation since December2021.… Read More
Big question: how’s the economy doing? With the year more than half over and markets on a spree, it’s an important question to consider. Let’s dig into the latest data and find out. Inflation continues its downward spiral. The latest data for June shows that inflation fell for the 12th month in a row to an annual rate of 3%.1 That’s a significant improvement from June of last year when inflation soared to 9.1%.… Read More
The U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient in 1H23 than many expected, as strength in the labor market hashelped support consumption. But how much momentum does that labor market have? This week’s chart looks toquantify labor market momentum in one number by analyzing seven key indicators: private payrolls, average hourlyearnings, the US Composite PMI Employment Index, the Conference Board Labor Differential Index, initial joblessclaims, job openings and the unemployment rate.… Read More
Take 2 minutes now to hear AssetMark CIO Christian Chan share his mid-year outlook on growth, headline inflation and equity rally.
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