Weekly Market Recap – January 26, 2026

After three blockbuster years for the S&P 500, investors are questioning whether there’s anymore room to run. The good news is that earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is increasingly fueling the bull market. The share of S&P 500 returns driven by earnings growth rose from just 27% in 2023 to 84% in 2025. Consensus is calling for an even stronger 2026, with EPS growth estimates sitting around 15%. But here too, investors are skeptical. This is over 3x consensus for nominal GDP growth, manufacturing activity is weak and consumer sentiment is at rock bottom.