Weekly Market Recap – November 3, 2025

With 2026 quickly approaching, many Americans are looking forward to unusually large income tax refunds. Next year, we expect a double-digit percentage increase in average personal income tax refunds due to the backdating of tax cuts from the OBBBA to the start of 2025. The new tax breaks didn’t become law until early July, and even then, tax withholding schedules were not adjusted for this legislation. Consequently, significantly more money than usual has been withheld from taxpayers throughout the year. In 2025, we estimate that 63% of the 165 million filers will receive a refund, with an average income tax refund of $3,200. In 2026, we expect 65% of filers to receive a refund, with an average refund of nearly $3,950.